Why You Should Cautiously Turn A Deaf Ear to 99% Of the Prognosticators
2019 is here, finally. And we arrived without the much ballyhooed “December Party” that we had last year in the cryptocurrency market. I for one was of the belief last year at this time that December of 2018 would be a repeat of what we saw in 2017. Obviously, it was not.
The 2018 December cryptocurrency party was canceled. The party-goers did not show up. The bulls were out to pasture. The moon got lost in the darkness of deep space, never to show its face. In other words, we were all wrong.
But many of the hard-headed prognosticators continue to call for a bull run, despite the evidence to the contrary. As I’ve said before, you better exercise extreme caution before you listen to any of the so-called “experts” calling for a bull run in the near future.
In order to see how ridiculous it is to believe anyone claiming that Bitcoin and/or the entire cryptocurrency market will break out into a bull run any day now, all we have to do is look at the historic chart. This puts it in perspective, and underscores a point I have been making for almost a year.
Once February of 2018 hit, my head came down out of the clouds and I started to realize that we were probably on the verge of a bear market, despite the majority of people calling for a short “blip” and continued bull run. I braced myself for the long ride down, and at times, I doubted myself when the Elliot waves would temporarily push the entire market back into what people thought was a real bull run.
If you scroll back through my posts, you can see it. Sure, I did not predict the depth of the bear market dive, but I did actually predict the big drop to 3100 just a few days before it happened. I still have a smug grin on my face after calling that one, but I’m proud of how well I did in sticking my ground calling the bear market from February on despite what everyone else was saying.
But let’s get back on topic! All we need to do in order to fully understand where we are at this point in the market’s development is look at the historic BTC chart. Here it is:
As we can see, the 2017 bull run absolutely dwarfed the bull run of 2013. But if we look carefully, we notice the unspoken the truth of the situation staring us right in the face. It’s that big span of time between the bull runs. The market took 2 or 3 years of quiet accumulation before repeating.
Take a look where we sit right now. We’re still in the midst of aggressive downward momentum, as depicted by the red arrow. We are dangerously testing the strength 3100 support level that I spoke about in my previous post. We may have seen the worst of it, and could be ready to shore up strength and start to hold strong.
But looking at the chart from the historic standpoint, what reason could anyone possibly concoct as to why we would jump straight out of a bear slide into another bull run, without the 4 complete stages of market development taking place as they have all throughout history?
You are right, there are exactly none.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again… the stock market AND the cryptocurrency market follow a 4-part pattern that is indicative of human nature and impulsiveness. First, we have quiet accumulation. Second, a consolidation phase with a bump in volume, The third stage is “markup”, where the feeding frenzy hits, and everyone dreams of getting exponentially rich overnight. The fourth is distribution, when all of the institutional buyers and “smart money” have left the unsuspecting public holding the majority of the positions. That’s when the balloon loses its hot air and slowly sails back down to earth.
I would invite anyone out there to show me when ANY of the markets have broken this natural pattern of development in our history. That includes the stock market, the commodities markets, and the cryptocurrency market. Until proven otherwise, it is safe to say that this is not the best time to be investing money you can’t afford to lose into the cryptocurrency market.
But that doesn’t mean this is a “doom and gloom” situation by any means. It’s actually a blessing in disguise. Now that we have seen what the cryptocurrency market is capable of doing, after the bull run of 2017, this bear market guarantees that we will have another chance to get some positions before the next bull run.
All that you need to remember is that it will take time, and history will more than likely repeat itself. History hasn’t failed us yet, and I don’t expect it to in the future!
Be safe out there.