MY THOUGHTS ON TWO POSSIBILITIES ON THE NEXT BTC BULL RUN
The action in the cryptocurrency market is heating up again. The market cap is on the rise, and all indications are present that the next bull run is here. But when will it happen, and how long will the run continue before it takes a break?
Many of the crypto prognosticators are calling for a Bitcoin run right now. But as we all know, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and quite unpredictable. Over the long term, I still firmly believe that the market will continue to rise as cryptocurrency is adopted worldwide. But what will happen in the immediate future?
I'd like to present two simple possibilities and give my reasoning why my gut feeling tells me that Scenario 2 is what we will see. And I also firmly believe that the real bull run is going to happen in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Let's start by looking at the first scenario, which seems to be the most commonly held belief.
In this scenario, many believe that we have ended the bear market with the low point of around $6400 USD. Looking at the low of $5800 this year, we see a double bottom ending with the higher bottom at $6400. This could be a good indication that we have seen the lowest Bitcoin trading price that we will ever see.
But has the market allowed enough time for this to be the final correction? It certainly could be. I am more convinced of this possibility considering the double bottom and higher low that has occurred. But the next chart presents a clear possibility of one more final correction before the next true run.
If BTC does not continue with an absolute breakout of the 4-hour candles on the upper trend line, a final short correction could occur before the bull run. And this looks like more of a possibility to me because it would allow for an absolute consolidation of this formation.
Judging from prior years action, I believe this to be true. It's not the popular belief, but there are a few market analysts that are considering this scenario. The clue will be what happens with the breaking of the upper trend line in the next few days.
If we close above the trend line and hold, forming a base at $9800, the run is on. Time will tell. But for those playing the market for the long term, it will not matter. Those looking to enter the market or mildly trade the action for the best possible return might benefit from waiting for this final clue to occur.
Either way, we now see institutional investing on the rise. And we also see the hedge fund investors losing a lot of ground that are still hanging on to short positions since the previous low. That is a very telling clue.
The safest way to enter into the market at this time is to wait for the confirmation of breaking the upper trend line, especially for those who do not have the capital to invest large amounts of money.
My advice at this point, which is not professional advice, is to play it as safe as possible and invest responsibly. But overall, I think there is a lot to gain by jumping in to the cryptocurrency market while we are still in the "early adoption" phase.
It's a tricky situation, and we all don't want to end up wishing we had entered into the market before the final bull run takes place during 2018, which I believe will happen during the 4th quarter.
This time last year, BTC was trading at around $1000 USD. Anyone who would have predicted a run to $20,000 would have probably been told they were being ridiculous. But if BTC continues to move as it has up until now, we could see $150,000 by the end of the year.
I'll be getting back into the swing of reporting on the cryptocurrency market now that we have had several significant developments, and I'll be keeping a close eye and reporting on the altcoins too. I'd love to hear your thoughts and analysis!