Bottom-Of-The-Barrel Prediction on 2018 BTC Bear

Closing In on the Last Dip Before the Bull Run

BTC Low.jpg

It’s been a quiet spring and summer for me, but I have been watching the cryptocurrency market like a hawk. I haven’t had to say much, because the market has been doing exactly what I thought it would do… continue the correction.

But the question remains, just how low will big brother Bitcoin go before the bear market finally draws to a close? We will take a look at the latest chart from Trading view and we’ll discuss the possibilities.

Before I reveal my predictions, I will say that everything I called for since February of 2018 has been on-point. I wasn’t fooled by all of the premature bull market predictions. Exactly all of them have failed to come true. I’m still surprised that so many “experts” thought a bull market could emerge before the market has run its course.

Never in the history of the stock market OR the cryptocurrency market have we seen the pattern broken. You can set your clock by it. The four phases of accumulation, consolidation, markup, and distribution must happen. It’s scientific, and it’s the result of human nature combined with the extremely small percentage of “whales” who play the general public’s tendency to be controlled by emotion.

Since the inception of the stock market, we’ve seen it… after a major run, the insiders pull out and leave the public holding the bag. The lack of tremendous buying pressure leaves the market to fall, and the 4-step process repeats itself.

That being said, let’s take a look at the chart and I’ll share with you what I see in the range of possibilities.

11-18-18 BTC.jpg





Up until a week ago, we thought 6200 was the rock-bottom level for BTC. Last winter, my eyes were telling me that 5500 was possible, and at worst-case, 3200. I thought I was wrong. Nothing could have convinced me that we would ever see anything less than 5000 as of last month. But the dive we just witnessed opens those doors of possibility yet again.

Now that we have seen BTC violate the floor level of 6200 and even plunge below 5500, there’s no base that we can count on that will hold down the fort. We have to go to previous bull run levels to determine the new possibilities for bottom-level price action, which we see on this chart at 3200 and again at roughly 4200.

The velocity of the big dip we just witnessed tells me that it is entirely possible, and it can happen fast. We’re talking “in-the-blink-of-an-eye” fast. The overall momentum is still downward, and the rallies are not breaking the bear market pattern.

Take a close look at the stars that I have indicated on the stochastic chart. Whenever BTC was seriously oversold, it rallied hard. But you’ll notice that on each rally, the peak stochastic was was reflecting a maximum buying pressure point that did not break the overall downtrend.

After every rally, the peaks are lower. Look at the succession of red arrows which represent the declining peaks, confirming the continuation of the big ugly bear market. But after every smack-down, BTC found support at the base. Not on the last one.

That’s why we have to look at the previous support levels before the 2017 run to find out what is possible for the next low points. The orange box represents the “Bottom-of-the-barrel” zone of possibility, and this is a worst-case.

BTC could certainly rally and start a reversal. But it’s not likely, based on the recent action. It’s always best to prepare for the worst. That means you should consider a trading zone of 3200 to 4200 BEFORE you throw your money into the crypto market in anticipation of the December rally.

And yes, I did say December rally. I fully expect this to happen. We will see a rally. At worst-case, we will find a bottom point and then start the accumulation/consolidation phase in December with a nice spike that falls by the new year. Best case scenario would be BTC eclipsing the all-time high of 2017.

It’s best to assume that we have not yet had enough time to properly complete the accumulation/consolidation phase. We might be in for a boring 12 months if we don’t see a major spike in December of 2018. All we have to do is look at the history of the market, and it will give us clues as to what can happen.

The SAFEST way to play the market at this point is to wait until we have confirmation of a true bottom, with a nice flat quiet accumulation period. When the volume of the market jumps up like a shelf and we trade sideways again at new base levels, that will be enough evidence to tell us we are in consolidation, which is the safest time to invest in my humble opinion.

Make no mistake about it, cryptocurrency is the future, and it’s the natural evolution of trading value among human beings. Nothing will stop this from happening. The only question is, how long will it take before we hit critical mass?

Time will tell. Until then, we’ll keep our eyes on the charts.

Carlton Flowers
The Crypto Pro

Should We Prepare for an Extended Crypto Bear Market?

WHY PLAYING IT "SAFE" COULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY

It's June 2018 and BTC continues its bear trend despite multiple incorrect predictions over the past few months from several noteworthy forecasters who thought the bull market should have already started.

The most common belief among the prognosticators was that $6,200 BTC was a big support level that would be a pivot point. As we now know, that prediction failed miserably.

The entire alt-coin market has also mirrored Bitcoin. None of the alts have broken free from the overall downtrend since the December 2017 all-time high. All of the alt coins appear to be in lock-step with big brother Bitcoin, and it is safe to assume that none of them have matured to the point that they can bust loose and deviate from its path.

The big question looming in everyone's mind is, "has Bitcoin hit rock-bottom?" But the question shoulnd't center around figuring out Bitcoin's "rock-bottom" price. It should be understanding what happens overall, based on how price activity develops.

When you look at the big picture, you can decide if you're the type of person who would feel more comfortable holding a position for several years through the ups and downs, or if you prefer to take a break in the short-term until the market turns around.

My advice to everyone is to play it safe and look at the worst-case scenario, despite all of the talk about an immediate reversal. In order to do this, we must look at the 1-week chart dating back as far as possible to get a birds-eye view.

BTC 1 Week 2018.PNG

In this analysis, we'll take a look at the overall action on the 1-week candles for Bitcoin dating back to 2016. It's necessary to zoom out as far as possible in order to get an idea of what the worst-case scenario could be.

Let's begin by identifying the current trend. In Figure 1, we can clearly see that the current downtrend is not your average correction in the midst of a rising market. After the peak in December 2017, we see lower highs and higher lows for 6 straight months.

The last time we saw an extended bear market like this was from November of 2013 all the way to January of 2015. That was a bit more than one solid year of a downtrend. But what we need to pay the most close attention to is what happened at the end of that extended bear market, which I notated in Figure 2 below.

BTC 2013 Bear Market Annotated.png

Before the 2013 bull run spike, we saw smaller breakouts and corrections that did not span the time of what we saw in this overall picture from 2013 to 2015. This is key.

In January of 2015, a quiet accumulation period of 9 months developed before the the market ticked up to the next accumulation level in June of 2016. That next level of accumulation lasted through April of 2017. We could actually call this a period of "consolidation".

In April of 2017 the bulls took full control and the charge started. It took us all the way to Bitcoin's peak of over $19,000 before getting swatted down despite all of the hype and anticipation of breaking the $20,000 barrier. The bear market officially started, and continues on through today.

The biggest point that I want to make is this: we have yet to see a bull run jump right out of a bear market without a period of quiet accumulation followed by a consolidation phase.

It just doesn't happen! Trend reversals take time to develop, and you can't short-cut the process. That's why it is best to turn a deaf ear to all of the ridiculous bull market predictions that we have been seeing week in and week out since the all-time high.

Going back to Figure 1, I believe that the worst-case scenario that we all have to take into consideration is the trading zone delineated by the red box. I don't base this solely on the history of BTC, but by the age-old rule of the four phases of market action which are as follows:

  • Accumulation
  • Consolidation
  • Markup
  • Distribution

This is how the stock market has traded in all of history, and the only difference between the stock market and the cryptocurrency market is the time it takes to move through all four of these phases. The cryptocurrency market cuts the overall time down from 13 year cycles to a year or two.

After the all-time high in December of 2017, we have a period of "distribution", or an extended selloff. Before we can see the next BTC moon-shot, we have to see an accumulation and consolidation phase. It won't happen overnight.

While I am not a financial advisor or a professional who gives investment advice, I think everyone can learn from what history has taught us. And for those of us who are not able to invest a Brinks truck full of cash into the crypto market, it's best to play it safe and take the most conservative approach to investing.

Time will only tell. I could be dead-wrong. But taking this approach to predicting the next BTC movement will certainly prevent me from losing the last bit of change jingling in my pockets.

Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro

 

 

Stock Market and Cryptocurrency Market Crash? Here's What You Need To Know

INSIGHT FROM ALESSIO RASTANI ON IMPENDING MARKET DIVE

Market Crash.jpg

Alessio Rastani had some very intriguing comments about the recent activity in the markets, and it is something we all need to take heed to. He has been consistently one of the best market analysts that I have come across, and he is usually right when he makes educated guesses about future market direction and trends analysis.

If we are all prepared, we can position ourselves to not only survive a market crash, but to benefit from it. They key is being smart about how and when you invest your money, and the best advice is to mirror the biggest players in the markets.

Across the stock market and cryptocurrency market, we have touched upon some major critical levels since the beginning of the year. In February, we had a panic sell moment, and from all indications, we are about to retest those levels.

Jason Geppert put out a report on Friday that the “smart money”, or institutional money, is pulling out of the stock market. If this causes a drop below the 200-day moving average and go deeper beyond the February lows, this will trigger a Dow Theory Sell Signal.

When this happens, the sell signal triggers sell programs across the markets that will drive the S&P 500 and the Stock Market much lower due to these automatic market orders. This will cause the stock market to fall hard. This is something we will have to plan for.

If the stock market holds when it touches on the 200EMA and recovers, this will be a very good indication of a turnaround. But we all need to be prepared for what will happen if the market violates this critical support level.

If you are investing your hard-earned money on the stock market or the cryptocurrency market, slow your roll. Be smart about it. Now is definitely NOT the time to risk your retirement, your savings, or invest anything you cannot afford to lose. The only way to invest in this dangerous time is to plan for the worst.

Experienced traders can "short" the market, or bet on stocks and crypto coins to fall, rather than rise. This is a super dangerous strategy, and you must have a margin account to do so. But if you lose, you will lose big.

Another method that experienced traders employ to gain from a down trend is to buy on dips, and sell on rallies. This is also dangerous, but I have seen this done with great success. It is much less dangerous than playing the market on margin, however.

The best thing to do is to study the market each and every day, listening to the top market forecasters so you can determine the point at which the market will turn around and start to climb again.

The stock market works on long cycles, as long as 13 years at a time. It rotates from a time of quiet accumulation with very little volatility to a time of heightened trading volume and a slight bump in stock prices, which is called "consolidation". Next comes a major run-up, or "Bull Market", and then the institutional investors pull out and take profits. That is called "distribution".

What normally happens during the distribution phase is that institutional investors, or "smart money", sells into the frenzy while the general public continues to buy with reckless abandon. Once the average Joe investors exhaust all of their resources, the prices drop like a rock. By that time, the smart money investors are long gone, having made tremendous profits.

Right now, I believe that the institutional investors have come to realize that cryptocurrency is the future. Smart money investors are not going to sit back and watch the general public amass the wealth of the world on a major change. They will position themselves to protect their assets. They have the power to drive the markets down to the basement, and then snap up the low priced cryptocurrencies at bargain prices.

This way, they end up on top of things once the changeover is complete. This is exactly what we are seeing in the oil industry. For decades, the oil industry denied that clean energy (like solar and wind power) would become the future. But now we are watching the oil industry giants lead the way investing heavily into clean energy. The result? They will still be on top of the world when the paradigm shift has completed.

Keep that in mind while you watch the market action in the coming months. Do your due diligence, plan for the worst, and capitalize on it.

Carlton Flowers
The Crypto Oracle

Cryptocurrency is About to Become a Mainstream Payment Option

WILL THAT BE CASH, CREDIT, OR CRYPTO?

Litecoin Credit Card.jpg

There’s a significant development in the works that everyone needs to know about, and it will change the way we go about our daily businesses each day in this country.

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange platform in the world, and the only in-ramp for converting US dollars to Bitcoin and other coins, is about to change the game in the payment processing game for small businesses.

If you thought cryptocurrency was a fad, you might be changing your mind in the near future if Coinbase follows through with their plans. They have a “plugin” under development which will upgrade credit card equipment to accept a new payment method: cryptocurrency.

That’s right, you will soon be able to pay for your goods and services at the smallest level of business with cryptocurrency. Litecoin will be at the forefront, as the standard for payment transactions. NOT Bitcoin, for those of who you might be wondering.

While Bitcoin remains to be the “gold standard” of cryptocurrency, it really isn’t structured to facilitate the fast payment processing needed to become a viable every-day payment option for retail. But Litecoin, with the new Litepay network, is designed for this use.

Litepay has a goal to become the “world’s first borderless payment network”. In other words, it doesn’t matter where you go in the world, you will be able to buy and sell using Litecoin, via the Litepay network.

Here’s where it gets good: Coinbase is going to make it possible for businesses to accept Litecoin cryptocurrency as a payment option wherever you have a credit/debit card processing machine. That’s powerful.

If you don’t believe any of this will come to fruition, all you need to do is pay attention to the wizard behind the curtain…

Coinbase has secured partnerships with Overstock, Dell, Expedia, Dish Network, and is rumored to be on the edge of a deal with Amazon.com. They are making serious moves in the retail world. But the key is who is behind Coinbase.

It’s the Digital Currency Group, an angel investor. So let’s bring the chickens home to roost, and fill you in on the most significant part of the story: Mastercard just invested a significant amount of money into the Digital Currency Group. Mastercard is the wizard. That’s all we need to know.

In order to speed the rate of adoption of providing this new payment option, Coinbase is going to reward businesses handsomely. In fact, the reward will be so great that small businesses will be able to offer a nice discount to customers who chose to pay with Litecoin cryptocurrency rather than with cash or credit, in terms of the US dollar.

That is very significant. Stop and think about it…

Rewarding businesses to accept cryptocurrency will have a tremendous impact on the rate of adoption of the new standard. The Coinbase plugin combined with Litepay could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. It could be the final event that breaks the dam.

The dam is holding back the impending tidal wave represented by the changeover to cryptocurrency. Technology, innovation, and efficiency are the forces responsible for the creation of the wave.

Mass adoption is coming. We will all have a front row seat in the theater of societal change, watching it all happen right before our very eyes. And in two blinks, we'll be hearing our favorite merchants saying, "will that be cash, credit, or crypto?"

Carlton Flowers
Cryptographer Supreme

 

Are We On The Verge Of The Next Cryptocurrency Bull Market?

CLUES THAT THE CRYPTO RUSH COULD BE AROUND THE CORNER

bull market returns.jpg

From the looks of it, the next bull market could be right around the corner for cryptocurrency trading. While nobody can be 100% sure of it, all indications are pointing in that direction.

After Bitcoin went completely bananas, exploding to nearly $20,000 in early December after a frenzied run, it has been a long and arduous ride down the  the slopes during a market correction that lasted nearly two and a half months.

I got into the crypto game in late November, and made some decent gains during the end of the last bull market. Fortunately, I ended up ahead of the profit curve after the correction finalized. Honestly, I was convinced that Bitcoin would correct to less than the $5,000 level before the bear market was complete.

But it appears that lots of institutional buyers were ready with automated purchase orders at the $6,000 support level, and the big dip that took it down below that point did not last long. Still not convinced, I waited on the sidelines until there was enough evidence that we had reached the bottom.

At this point, most of the top prognosticators believe that we have completed the correction, and the top cryptocurrencies have consolidated nicely forming a strong base. The market has been propagating sideways since the big dip in January, and this has been encouraging.

The news on the developments of the major coins and even the altcoins has been strong since the dip. I truly believe that the world is headed towards adoption of cryptocurrency as a standard of trade and exchange. But we are still in the early stages of the process.

I am still cautious, because we have seen the cryptocurrency market drag through distribution phases for upwards of a year at a time. The previous bear market only lasted two or three months. But it appears that the overall upward trend is still in tact.

Make no mistake about it, the "smart money" of the world knows that this paradigm shift is real, and an enormous amount of wealth will be transferred into the cryptocurrency market in the next few years.

A significant development occurred in February that is one of the biggest indicators that we are on the edge of a rising bull market. Credit card companies have halted the ability to buy cryptocurrencies on Coinbase via credit. There is a reason behind this.

It's called the "leverage loop", and it threatens the stability of the credit card companies. If credit card companies continue to allow purchasing during a rising market, their customers can leverage gains on cryptocurrencies in short order, and pay off their balances. Credit card companies need to keep customers in a reasonable amount of debt in order to make money on high interest rates that they charge.

That's why they put the kibosh on allowing people to buy cryptos on credit. If we weren't on the edge of a bull market, you better believe that these companies would continue encouraging their users to increase their debts, thus facilitating more profit through interest charges.

Another strong indication of a pending bull market? The action of the Digital Currency Group. This is one of the major players in future investments in the world. They are the company behind MasterCard. They are making plans now to update credit card terminals to allow cryptocurrency payments. That's major news.

Lastly, we have to consider what is going on with the stock market. We have every indication that the stock market might be in the midst of a major correction. They aren't going to sit back and watch this happen without taking action. Proof? The NASDAQ company is one of the companies behind Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, and the only on-ramp to converting fiat currency to cryptocurrency.

Coinbase is already making developments to integrate a plugin that will allow businesses to accept cryptocurrency payments. The biggest potential customer is the biggest retailer in the world: Amazon.com.

Coinbase is positioned to be able to snatch a significant amount of money from the banking institution, because they will make it cheaper for regular every-day businesses to process payments using crypto. This represents a major threat to the future of banks.

All of these developments have a significant impact on cutting the bear market to a close, and opening up the gates for the next bull run. While we can't be solidly sure when the market will start the next major uptrend, there isn't a question about "IF" it will happen... the question is WHEN.

Keep your eyes on the markets, and invest responsibly. There is definite risk in getting involved in what we call the "early adoption stage", but with great risk comes great reward. My advice to everyone is to invest only what you can afford to lose. Be careful, but pay close attention to what is going on in the coming months. It will be exciting to watch!

Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro