2019 Pipe Dreams & Bull Run Predictions - Here's the REAL Prediction

Why You Should Cautiously Turn A Deaf Ear to 99% Of the Prognosticators

2019 Bull or Bear.jpg

2019 is here, finally. And we arrived without the much ballyhooed “December Party” that we had last year in the cryptocurrency market. I for one was of the belief last year at this time that December of 2018 would be a repeat of what we saw in 2017. Obviously, it was not.

The 2018 December cryptocurrency party was canceled. The party-goers did not show up. The bulls were out to pasture. The moon got lost in the darkness of deep space, never to show its face. In other words, we were all wrong.

But many of the hard-headed prognosticators continue to call for a bull run, despite the evidence to the contrary. As I’ve said before, you better exercise extreme caution before you listen to any of the so-called “experts” calling for a bull run in the near future.

Here’s why…

In order to see how ridiculous it is to believe anyone claiming that Bitcoin and/or the entire cryptocurrency market will break out into a bull run any day now, all we have to do is look at the historic chart. This puts it in perspective, and underscores a point I have been making for almost a year.

Once February of 2018 hit, my head came down out of the clouds and I started to realize that we were probably on the verge of a bear market, despite the majority of people calling for a short “blip” and continued bull run. I braced myself for the long ride down, and at times, I doubted myself when the Elliot waves would temporarily push the entire market back into what people thought was a real bull run.

If you scroll back through my posts, you can see it. Sure, I did not predict the depth of the bear market dive, but I did actually predict the big drop to 3100 just a few days before it happened. I still have a smug grin on my face after calling that one, but I’m proud of how well I did in sticking my ground calling the bear market from February on despite what everyone else was saying.

But let’s get back on topic! All we need to do in order to fully understand where we are at this point in the market’s development is look at the historic BTC chart. Here it is:

As we can see, the 2017 bull run absolutely dwarfed the bull run of 2013. But if we look carefully, we notice the unspoken the truth of the situation staring us right in the face. It’s that big span of time between the bull runs. The market took 2 or 3 years of quiet accumulation before repeating.

Take a look where we sit right now. We’re still in the midst of aggressive downward momentum, as depicted by the red arrow. We are dangerously testing the strength 3100 support level that I spoke about in my previous post. We may have seen the worst of it, and could be ready to shore up strength and start to hold strong.

But looking at the chart from the historic standpoint, what reason could anyone possibly concoct as to why we would jump straight out of a bear slide into another bull run, without the 4 complete stages of market development taking place as they have all throughout history?

You are right, there are exactly none.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again… the stock market AND the cryptocurrency market follow a 4-part pattern that is indicative of human nature and impulsiveness. First, we have quiet accumulation. Second, a consolidation phase with a bump in volume, The third stage is “markup”, where the feeding frenzy hits, and everyone dreams of getting exponentially rich overnight. The fourth is distribution, when all of the institutional buyers and “smart money” have left the unsuspecting public holding the majority of the positions. That’s when the balloon loses its hot air and slowly sails back down to earth.

I would invite anyone out there to show me when ANY of the markets have broken this natural pattern of development in our history. That includes the stock market, the commodities markets, and the cryptocurrency market. Until proven otherwise, it is safe to say that this is not the best time to be investing money you can’t afford to lose into the cryptocurrency market.

But that doesn’t mean this is a “doom and gloom” situation by any means. It’s actually a blessing in disguise. Now that we have seen what the cryptocurrency market is capable of doing, after the bull run of 2017, this bear market guarantees that we will have another chance to get some positions before the next bull run.

All that you need to remember is that it will take time, and history will more than likely repeat itself. History hasn’t failed us yet, and I don’t expect it to in the future!

Be safe out there.

Carlton Flowers

Should We Prepare for an Extended Crypto Bear Market?


It's June 2018 and BTC continues its bear trend despite multiple incorrect predictions over the past few months from several noteworthy forecasters who thought the bull market should have already started.

The most common belief among the prognosticators was that $6,200 BTC was a big support level that would be a pivot point. As we now know, that prediction failed miserably.

The entire alt-coin market has also mirrored Bitcoin. None of the alts have broken free from the overall downtrend since the December 2017 all-time high. All of the alt coins appear to be in lock-step with big brother Bitcoin, and it is safe to assume that none of them have matured to the point that they can bust loose and deviate from its path.

The big question looming in everyone's mind is, "has Bitcoin hit rock-bottom?" But the question shoulnd't center around figuring out Bitcoin's "rock-bottom" price. It should be understanding what happens overall, based on how price activity develops.

When you look at the big picture, you can decide if you're the type of person who would feel more comfortable holding a position for several years through the ups and downs, or if you prefer to take a break in the short-term until the market turns around.

My advice to everyone is to play it safe and look at the worst-case scenario, despite all of the talk about an immediate reversal. In order to do this, we must look at the 1-week chart dating back as far as possible to get a birds-eye view.

BTC 1 Week 2018.PNG

In this analysis, we'll take a look at the overall action on the 1-week candles for Bitcoin dating back to 2016. It's necessary to zoom out as far as possible in order to get an idea of what the worst-case scenario could be.

Let's begin by identifying the current trend. In Figure 1, we can clearly see that the current downtrend is not your average correction in the midst of a rising market. After the peak in December 2017, we see lower highs and higher lows for 6 straight months.

The last time we saw an extended bear market like this was from November of 2013 all the way to January of 2015. That was a bit more than one solid year of a downtrend. But what we need to pay the most close attention to is what happened at the end of that extended bear market, which I notated in Figure 2 below.

BTC 2013 Bear Market Annotated.png

Before the 2013 bull run spike, we saw smaller breakouts and corrections that did not span the time of what we saw in this overall picture from 2013 to 2015. This is key.

In January of 2015, a quiet accumulation period of 9 months developed before the the market ticked up to the next accumulation level in June of 2016. That next level of accumulation lasted through April of 2017. We could actually call this a period of "consolidation".

In April of 2017 the bulls took full control and the charge started. It took us all the way to Bitcoin's peak of over $19,000 before getting swatted down despite all of the hype and anticipation of breaking the $20,000 barrier. The bear market officially started, and continues on through today.

The biggest point that I want to make is this: we have yet to see a bull run jump right out of a bear market without a period of quiet accumulation followed by a consolidation phase.

It just doesn't happen! Trend reversals take time to develop, and you can't short-cut the process. That's why it is best to turn a deaf ear to all of the ridiculous bull market predictions that we have been seeing week in and week out since the all-time high.

Going back to Figure 1, I believe that the worst-case scenario that we all have to take into consideration is the trading zone delineated by the red box. I don't base this solely on the history of BTC, but by the age-old rule of the four phases of market action which are as follows:

  • Accumulation
  • Consolidation
  • Markup
  • Distribution

This is how the stock market has traded in all of history, and the only difference between the stock market and the cryptocurrency market is the time it takes to move through all four of these phases. The cryptocurrency market cuts the overall time down from 13 year cycles to a year or two.

After the all-time high in December of 2017, we have a period of "distribution", or an extended selloff. Before we can see the next BTC moon-shot, we have to see an accumulation and consolidation phase. It won't happen overnight.

While I am not a financial advisor or a professional who gives investment advice, I think everyone can learn from what history has taught us. And for those of us who are not able to invest a Brinks truck full of cash into the crypto market, it's best to play it safe and take the most conservative approach to investing.

Time will only tell. I could be dead-wrong. But taking this approach to predicting the next BTC movement will certainly prevent me from losing the last bit of change jingling in my pockets.

Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro